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  <h1>The State of the Market</h1>
  <h2 class="subHead">A Look Back at 2005--and What's Ahead</h2>
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    By&nbsp;Raanan Geberer
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  <p>
 By now, the New York City real estate market has become
 nearly legendary. Always one of the top three costliest American cities in
 which to live, the Big Apple also gives Tokyo, London, and other
 notoriously expensive cities a run for their money as far as rents and
 apartment purchase prices are concerned.
</p>
<p>
 By all accounts, 2005 did nothing to alter the
 city&#8217;s high-ticket status. Despite rumors of a real estate
 &#8220;bubble&#8221; fueled in part by media and investor speculation, the
 co-op and condo real estate market in New York continued to grow strongly
 in 2005, although a slight slowing down was reported in the last two
 quarters.
</p>
<p>
 According to data compiled on Yale Robbins Inc.&#8217;s
 Condo-Sales.com website, prices throughout 2005 were relatively steady
 &#8212; only declining toward the end of the year &#8212; and were even
 more robust than 2004. Between January and December 2005, a total of 6,766
 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments were sold in the city, an increase
 of 2,488 over last year.
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<p>
 Of those 6,766 apartments sold, 1,038 were studios,
 2,306 were one-bedrooms, 1,916 were two-bedrooms, 654 had three bedrooms,
 and 852 had four or more bedrooms or were classified as lofts. Sales peaked
 in March 2005 with 773 apartments changing hands, and were at their lowest
 ebb in November, with just 388 units sold. On average, about 560 apartments
 were purchased in any given month in 2005.
</p>
<p>
 According to Jonathan Miller, president and chief
 executive officer of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraisal and consulting
 firm, &#8220;Two-bedrooms have the largest market share, and they nearly
 always have &#8212; but we have been seeing a lot of studios and
 one-bedrooms move, as well as $20 million-plus trophy
 properties.&#8221;
</p>
<h2>
 In a Nutshell
</h2>
<p>
 According to The Corcoran Group&#8217;s year-end
 report, the average selling price for Manhattan co-ops rose 23 percent,
 with condos seeing a 25 percent gain. Brooklyn saw across-the board
 increases in sales prices as well, although with a more modest 14 percent
 in co-ops and 10 percent in condos.
</p>
<p>
 According to Warburg Realty Partners&#8217; annual
 report, &#8220;In the past few years, small apartments have driven the
 market to its highest-ever price per square-foot, which was achieved in the
 third quarter.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Miller agrees. &#8220;On a square-foot difference,
 condos sold for 24.8 percent more than co-ops did in 2005. This is
 partially due to the fact that the condos that sold were larger &#8212;
 1,169 square feet for co-ops versus 1,362 square feet for condos &#8212;
 and larger space generally commands a premium on a per-square-foot basis.
 Based on other research, we generally see about a 15 percent premium for
 condos over co-ops that&#8217;s based on ownership rights. There&#8217;s
 just more freedom with condos.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Moreover, the overall upward movement, is a reflection
 of a long-time trend, according to statistics compiled by the Real Estate
 Board of New York (REBNY). From the first quarter of 2002 to the third
 quarter of &#8216;05, median sales prices in Manhattan have risen from
 $493,500 to $650,000. For co-ops, that increased from $525,000 to $813,750.
</p>
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<p>
 According to industry observers, external political
 factors like the war in Iraq had very little impact on the real estate
 market. The economy, though, seems to be more on people&#8217;s minds.
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;I think overall, the economy has been growing
 over the past year,&#8221; says Frederick Peters, president of Warburg
 Realty Partners. &#8220;Nationally, it was a little stronger than expected.
 I think that interest rates remained low for mortgages, even though the
 prime rate has been going up. Both of those factors have helped our
 market.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 As for whether there&#8217;s a limit to how much people
 can or will pay for property in New York City, Miller says
 &#8220;It&#8217;s not really a function of limit &#8212; when prices
 overreach incomes, prices will fall back, or the rate of appreciation will
 ease. In the latter half of 2005, the number of transactions fell,
 suggesting that appreciation will be much more modest in 2006.&#8221;
</p>
<h2>
 Bubble &#8212; or Hiccup?
</h2>
<p>
 One thing real estate professionals do not like is the
 word &#8220;bubble,&#8221; implying that the market is about to burst
 sooner or later, like the stock market did in the dot-com crash.
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;We like to refer to that as the &#8216;B
 word,&#8217;&#8221; Peters says. &#8220;In the last eight months, our
 market has calmed down considerably, with not much in the way of price
 increases. I think that what happened is that the market needed to take a
 breather and catch up with itself. I think we&#8217;ll have a slower
 market, in which there will be more negotiation, but that all leads to a
 healthier marketplace.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Chris Thomas, executive vice president of Brown Harris
 Stevens in Brooklyn, says, &#8220;The word `bubble&#8217; applies better to
 the stock market sphere, where you&#8217;re clearly buying an investment
 product. In the co-op market that&#8217;s not the case.&#8221; While condos
 can present an opportunity to speculate, Thomas says, &#8220;The vast
 majority of condo purchases were made by people who actually want to live
 in the condo.&#8221;
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<p>
 Pam Liebman, president and chief executive officer of
 The Corcoran Group, agrees. &#8220;Real estate is real and tangible,&#8221;
 she says, &#8220;and for those who intend to live in their homes for five
 years or more, they&#8217;re not just buying for speculative
 purposes.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;No, this is not a bubble,&#8221; says Roberta
 Benzilio, chief operating officer of Century 21 Kevin B. Brown and
 Associates. &#8220;This is only a market hiccup because of a seasonal
 adjustment, coupled with the uncertainty the public feels from all the talk
 of a bubble.&#8221;
</p>
<h2>
 Reality-Based Real Estate
</h2>
<p>
 Comparisons with the market of the late &#8216;90s or
 early &#8216;00s also come up favorably, with executives characterizing
 today&#8217;s real estate market as being more healthy and
 &#8220;reality-based.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;The main difference,&#8221; says Peters,
 &#8220;is that in the 1990s, people perceived the real estate market as
 being completely linked to the stock market. After the bursting of the
 tech-stock bubble, the two markets uncoupled, and people began regarding
 real estate as a separate investment class.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;In the 1990s,&#8221; says Kirk Henckels,
 director of private brokerage at Stribling Associates, &#8220;we had a
 speculative market. Now, the market is not dominated by investors who
 intend to flip.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Joanne Kennedy, chief operating officer of Coldwell
 Banker Hunt Kennedy, expresses similar sentiments: &#8220;Today, the market
 is more level and the hysteria has calmed down. Buyers have more time to
 shop, more choices, and greater opportunities to negotiate. Every sale is
 not an automatic bidding war.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Which were more popular last year &#8212; co-ops or
 condos? General sentiment was that most people, if given the choice, would
 rather buy a condo because of the often-harrowing co-op board approval
 process. But because so many of the most desirable buildings in Manhattan
 are co-ops, co-ops in prestigious areas such as the Upper West and Upper
 East Sides continue to be desirable.
</p>
<h2>
 The More the Better
</h2>
<p>
 So what are these co-op and condo buyers looking for?
 &#8220;If one is buying a new condo,&#8221; says Peters, &#8220;it&#8217;s
 baseline that buyers want a health club. Many of them have pools in the
 buildings, many have a sun deck.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Still, he says, amenities aren&#8217;t what make people
 buy an apartment&#8212;it&#8217;s the essentials, like space, light, a
 sense of community. Furthermore, he says, some non-luxury buildings are
 offering &#8220;virtual doormen&#8221; in the form of surveillance and
 electronic concierge services instead of actual doormen, since these buyers
 don&#8217;t want &#8220;the enormously high carrying charges that go with
 round-the-clock service.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 By contrast, Benzilio says, &#8220;The more, the
 better. The more unique, the hipper or cooler it is &#8212; the latest in
 kitchen fashion, the newest designers, and top, top quality. Something no
 one else has &#8212; like a private dog run.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Also, adds Kennedy, &#8220;State-of-the art kitchens
 and baths, no matter how big, are always at the top of the list. So is
 light, which translates to big windows and lots of glass.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 This rage for the latest amenities has even hit
 Brownstone Brooklyn, whose stately 19th century townhouses are being
 augmented by new construction &#8212; even though, according to Thomas,
 it&#8217;s easier to put features like saunas, hot tubs, Jacuzzis,
 gas-burning fireplaces and roof decks into new buildings than to retrofit
 them into older ones.
</p>
<h2>
 In &#8212; Or Near &#8212;Manhattan
</h2>
<p>
 Many of the emerging and still-hot new neighborhoods
 are still in Manhattan, such as Harlem, the Lower East Side and
 &#8220;Midtown West&#8221; (the old meat-packing district, Hell&#8217;s
 Kitchen, etc.).
</p>
<p>
 Following a trend that has increased in the past 10
 years, other fashionable, in-demand neighborhoods like Greenpoint, Red
 Hook, Long Island City, and Vinegar Hill, have continued to develop outside
 Manhattan. Often, commercial developments, such as the construction of
 long-awaited the Fairway supermarket and IKEA furniture store in
 Brooklyn&#8217;s Red Hook, will make the surrounding residential
 neighborhood more desirable.
</p>
<p>
 Many of these &#8220;newer&#8221; neighborhoods are
 being populated with buyers priced out of Manhattan. &#8220;So many of the
 kids who grew up on the Upper East Side and went away to college, when they
 graduate and come back, they don&#8217;t move to the Upper East Side. They
 go to Park Slope and Carroll Gardens,&#8221; says Peters.
</p>
<p>
 Still, one thing these now-fashionable neighborhoods in
 Brooklyn and Queens have in common is that they are within a half-hour or
 so of Midtown and Downtown Manhattan. Manhattan is still seen as the
 capital of the world, with its restaurants, theaters, Madison Square
 Garden, museums, and nightclubs.
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;Manhattan is the financial, commercial, artistic
 and intellectual center of the world,&#8221; says Liebman, &#8220;and to be
 able to call it home is a dream shared by millions of people from around
 the globe.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Few of those interviewed for this article see much
 cooling-off of interest in fashionable neighborhoods &#8212; especially in
 Manhattan &#8212; although Kennedy says the Sutton Place area between 53rd
 and 59th streets, has been &#8220;a relative bargain for a decade.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 In Brooklyn, Carroll Gardens has cooled off slightly,
 says Thomas, even though that neighborhood is still very desirable.
 It&#8217;s just that in the past, &#8220;Carroll Gardens&#8217; selling
 point was its proximity to Cobble Hill,&#8221; and now, emerging nearby
 neighborhoods like Red Hook and Fort Greene &#8220;are competing for the
 next generation of buyers.&#8221;
</p>
<h2>
 New Construction Projects
</h2>
<p>
 Part of the benefit of the booming New York City market
 is that it is fueling a wealth of new construction and alterations of
 existing co-ops and condos throughout Manhattan and the surrounding
 boroughs. You can&#8217;t walk a block in the city without seeing a
 bulldozer, crane or scaffold dotting the concrete urban landscape we call
 the Big Apple.
</p>
<p>
 These new condo buildings span a wide range, from a
 proposed nearly 900-unit development in Chelsea to mid-range projects
 calling for 200 to 300 units in Midtown and the Upper East and Upper West
 Sides, all the way down to The Nola, an eight-unit townhouse condominium
 set for occupancy later this year in Brooklyn. Three new co-ops are in the pipeline, the 475-unit Tower Residences at One
 Carnegie Hill being built by The Related Companies at 215 East 96th Street,
 a condop, a 17-story, 62-unit development at 4 West 21st Street,&nbsp;and 23 units at 2000 Fifth Avenue planned by The East
 Harlem Development Corporation. One condop will be going up along Park
 Avenue South, a 40-story, 432-unit building scheduled for completion in
 2008. Across the river in Brooklyn, Thomas notes construction projects
 along State and Livingston Streets, the Smith at Smith Street and Atlantic
 Avenue, and the J Condo at 100 Jay St., which, at the time this article was
 being written, was &#8220;already half sold &#8212; even though it&#8217;s
 still just a hole in the ground.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Celebrity broker Dolly Lenz of Prudential Douglas
 Elliman is less bullish than some and stresses that caution must be
 exercised in evaluating all the new construction activity. &#8220;With all
 this new construction coming on&#8212;they really aren&#8217;t
 builders&#8212;they don&#8217;t understand the risk, the construction
 risks, there&#8217;s so many risks. So I feel that all this new product
 coming on to the market with people who really didn&#8217;t know exactly
 what they were doing and that could hurt the market,&#8221; she warns.
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;But if we&#8217;re talking about a great
 developer with experience, with a great construction company behind them
 and a great lender, there&#8217;s no issue. Look at the way Central Park
 West has been absorbed or Time Warner, it&#8217;s still the hottest thing
 going. And that says everything. But you really have to know what
 you&#8217;re doing. You couldn&#8217;t be last week in the schmatza
 business and this week in the construction business,&#8221; quips Lenz.
</p>
<p>
 Developers Stephen Ross of The Related Companies and
 William Zeckendorf of Zeckendorf Development, however, both remain very
 optimistic. Although the market did shift and may continue to undergo a
 correction, New York City is still the greatest in the world in which to
 live, and people still want to be here, they said.
</p>
<h2>
 The Super-Luxury Market
</h2>
<p>
 Since so many of the newer buildings are intended for
 the super-luxury or ultra high-ticket markets, or advertise themselves as
 such, what does this mean?
</p>
<p>
 Kennedy defines the super-luxury market as offering
 &#8220;studios and new one-bedrooms over $2 million. Fifteen Central Park
 West is at the top of the list.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Henckels of Stribling raises the bar, defining the
 &#8220;super&#8221; luxury market as &#8220;generally $10 million, $15
 million and up, a market that&#8217;s doing very well. There was an
 apartment that sold for $20 million that sold in a week two weeks
 ago.&#8221; What defines this market, he says, is &#8220;location,
 architecture and service.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 And what is inside these luxury and super-luxury
 apartments?
</p>
<p>
 In Thomas&#8217; opinion, a luxury co-op or condo
 building is one that has a doorman, probably a live-in super and a two-or
 three-person staff. &#8220;If this is new construction, there would be
 high-end finishes in bathrooms and kitchens, both a Jacuzzi tub and a
 separate shower/steam room, his-and-hers vanities, usually a dressing area
 in the master bedroom, a guest bathroom &#8212; and countertops would be
 either marble or granite.&#8221;
</p>
<h2>
 Not Necessarily Necessary
</h2>
<p>
 &#8220;What constitutes luxury &#8212; perceived or
 otherwise,&#8221; sums up Benzilio, &#8220;is top quality, excess,
 sumptuousness, and that which is not always essential.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 What trends are seen for 2006 in beyond for the co-op
 and condo market? Buyers will continue to seek more conveniences, extra
 space, internally-wired Internet and cable access, and, in some cases,
 hotel-like services.
</p>
<p>
 With all this luxury in the air, it may be surprising
 to some that Kennedy points to more affordable housing in emerging
 neighborhoods as being a growing trend &#8212; especially in appreciating
 neighborhoods like Harlem. In other neighborhoods, like Greenpoint and
 Williamsburg in Brooklyn, a certain percentage of affordable units is
 mandated as part of a deal under which the city approves large new
 residential developments.
</p>
<p>
 But in general, Kennedy says, &#8220;Manhattan is
 continuing to be an island for the well-heeled, and square footage and
 abundant closet space are at a premium.&#8221; And there&#8217;s very
 little new about that &#8212; though 2006 is shaping up to be a somewhat
 different story than 2005, at least in terms of the pace of the market.
 According to Miller, it may be easier to characterize 2006 by what it
 isn&#8217;t.
</p>
<p>
 &#8220;I don&#8217;t&#8217; think 2006 will be a market
 with tight inventory and rapid appreciation. Inventory levels have been
 expanding and higher mortgage rates &#8212; especially [adjustable rate
 mortgages] ARMs &#8212; will temper demand. New development will continue
 to enter the market, since many of these developers have been in the
 pipeline for two years or more. I think we&#8217;ll see much more marketing
 by brokers as they make the transition from order-takers to real marketers
 in order to differentiate their product from others.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
 Raanan Geberer is a freelance writer living in New York
 City.
</p>

  
  
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